2018 Hurricane Season Forecast

The Tropical Meteorology team at Colorado State University released their first Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity yesterday. They indicate a slightly above average probability of major hurricanes making landfall along the U.S. coastline.

One of the biggest variables when creating this forecast is that of sea surface temperatures. The western tropical Atlantic is currently warmer than average, while the eastern tropical Atlantic and North Atlantic are cooler than average. Of course there is still time for ocean warming to occur prior to the peak of hurricane season, so things could certainly change,

 

Key Forecast Take-Aways;

63% chance of a major hurricane striking the U.S.

39% chance a major hurricane will impact the East Coast including the Florida Peninsula

38% chance of a Gulf coast hurricane landfall

The entire forecast is available here- https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2018/04/2018-04.pdf